Graham Allison – China not a problem but a condition that we must deal with over decades. Gap in thinking.
China harmony thru hierarchy
US rule of law. National laws writ global.

China used military pragmatically
War and peace but real politics. Few constraints from previous rationale and inured from criticism. No need to explain themselves to themselves.

See all connected to all. The xi of a situation, potential for action. Balance of factors influencing. That shirt. China moves when in alignment, swiftly, down hill.

Psychological and political war. Military part secondary. Image of center of universe, keeps other wary. Size seals it. Use economic war to weaken. And the set enemies fighting each other. Highest victory is to never fight.

China fights slowly, patiently. Accumulating advantage and moving when ready. Rarely does china go all in on risky move. Chess dominate center and overwhelm. Goa surround opponent. Chess 5-6 moves ahead. Goa sees 20-30

We use force. Force on force goa seeks relative advantage.

We think we welcome china into world.
China sees us as containing them.
They see us as trying to isolate, contain, divide, diminish, sabotage leadership. We don’t accept them cause we not liberal democracy. And we will never relinquish our power. Acting to slowly surround us.

Keenan. Soviets believed US must be destroyed if ussr to survive. So we took an equally”. Marshal Plan and NSC 68. Fight without direct conflict. Negotiation agreements. Had three Nos.
No nuke attack
No killing each other
No interference in other sphere

ussr economy recovered fast. Doubled in first decade after ww II. Grew half again second decade. Spent most on military.largest build up in history. What if they focused on quality of life? Extended control down to factory and farm level?
Might have made the best society yet.

Containment, deter, undermine
68 ussr fanatic faith bent on influence
Build a new order. Not pull away. IMF NATO us Japan. UN.

Approach. Ride waves of history
We write rules cause size of Econ and mil
40% of growth since 2008 from china.

Engage but hedge. Permits all stops now. Let’s state build interest. Defense hedges. No strategy. What we’ve done since Nixon.

4 options what we could do. Clear options

1 accommodate. Adjust to conditions. Ad how or negotiate. British accommodate us in 1890s. Yalta negotiated accommodation. Back off Taiwan support for control of South China Sea. China de nuke North Korea. We pull out of south

2 undermine. Split country. Question legitimacy of commie party. Why not china? Deserve human rights too. Supprt independence for tether and Taiwan. Use internet freedom to undermine china. Steal and leak truths about powerful in china. Train separatist. Arm the Weagers movement. Splinter at

1. Negotiate a long peace. Accept intolerable but unchangeable facts. Treaties. Linkage of issues that each wanted. China sees progress in decades. We see it in months. Freeze south china, allow shipping, stay out of politics. No cyber attacks. We Aron hr report. They take down missiles. We stop surveillance. We stop global strike capability. They take down islands.
2. Reinvent. China wants us to accept their indulge in Asia. 4 things. Nukes, rouge nukes, terrorism, climate change. Our interests are allied.

Clarify vital interest. Do we need to control South China Sea? Do we need to defend Philippines?

Understand China’s aim. What they want. We other assume they want what we want.

Candor adds clarity. Pursue interest. Predictability and stability key in state craft

Have strategy . We have aims with understanding how to do

Us
Partisan. Trust gone. Legal corruption. Poorly educated peploe, market driven press

China top down control not fit people. Reliance on old text where best already said. Hard to attract foreign talent. No rule of law
Mandarin bearcacy