John Lewis Gladdis

Forecasting accuracy. Expert Political Judgment – Tecloc followed 28,000 predictions from 88-03 from 284 experts gov, uni, media, think tanks.  Who they were , status background, and education didn’t matter. What they thought, Political POV didn’t matter. How they thought meant all. Self Id as fox or hedgehog was critical variable. Fix better.  Hedgehog random luck. Foxes stitch info from diverse sources.  Doubt can ever see system. Hedgehog relate all to theory.

Kennan. Serbia. Whirship of local gods.  Christianity shallow when in intense place.  Scarface dog to drop stop.  Action Routed not in knowledge but in vividly realizes.

St Augustine created standard to meet for war.  Needed mono god in control.  Created a checklist not mandates, commandments. Faith in single solution leads to blood. Apportion enormities-economy of violence.

Machiavelli.  Dogmatic certainly shattered by Mac. 1688 one power. Legislators but they can be removed. Gradual change. Suspicious of zealots, compromising is victory.  Stem from absolutism.

Chapter 6. Harmonies characters. Ecological sensibility.  Intuition. Strategy linked to imagination. Cuo doi inward eye. Complexity full rendered. Takes too long and not really help. Sketch what u know and imagine how to fill it in.  Live with contradictions.  

Tolstoy – Bound together small freedoms. Not loads or rules.  Not independent from dependent variables.  Always be things can know. Always smaller components.  Laws governing infinitesimal not perceivable or actionable.  Inescapable interdependent across time, space and scale.  Can’t sep dependent from independent. Always be things that can’t be known. Using components won’t help. Always smaller. Laws of infinitesimals can’t be felt, so our feeling of agency is our agency.  

Chapter 7. Faith thin in crisis. Siberia in long cold storm, take on practice of local. Sacrifice.  Actions governed not by belief but what we realize. 
Augustine. Invented biography. Violent lustful and gambling thief. Rome receding.  Leadership position. Reconcile faith with reason 7 (19:10) his rules for war. Provocation exist? Talk tried? Means to peace rather than end in itself? Proportionate force? First question of states right to war, 

Stalin – FDR – lend lease open cause FDR wanted to Supprt. Recognized ussr cause he saw the role fighting japan and Germany.  Kept all in the dark. Not tell left hand what rift was doing – but he was in control.  
1688 rev Locke legislature supreme power.  Yet power resides in people. Remove or alter leg. Robert Tooms suspicion of utopia and zealots, trust in experience, common sense, tradition, gradual change, comprise is victory.